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š„ Ethereumās civil war š„
PLUS: Are we going to peak in Q4? This chart suggests we are š
Todayās edition is brought to you by crypto index JāJO35 - an investment platform focused entirely on index investing.
GM. This is Milk Road, the newsletter that has your back in the fist fight that is crypto.
Hereās what we got for you today:
āļø Ethereumās revolt
āļø Are we going to peak in Q4?
š„ Milk Road PRO Portfolio updates
šļø The Milk Road Show: Trump, Fed, US Debt, and the Greatest Bull Setup of All Time (Including Ethereum) w/ Scott Melker
šŖ Rex Shares has filed for a $DOGE and $TRUMP ETF
THEREāS A REVOLT BREWING WITHIN ETHEREUM š¤
People donāt want a quarter inch drill bit, they want a quarter inch hole in their drywall.
But more than that quarter inch hole, they want to install a bookshelf on their wall.
More than that, they want the books they display to tell visitors how smart they are.
The current battle going on within Ethereum follows a similar rabbit hole of layered āwantsā ā and once you get to the bottom of it, youāll think to yourself:
āHa! Kind of a dumb thing to be fighting about, all things considered.ā
Hereās whatās going down on the surface:
Right now, a few factions within Ethereum are having a pretty public fight on Crypto Twitter ā the basic gist of which is thisā¦
Side A: wants Ethereum to focus on heavily increasing its transaction speeds, and for the Ethereum Foundation (EF) to have a āwartime leaderā installed (someone thatās going to kick down walls and put fires under everyoneās butts). E.g. š
Side B: wants to keep Ethereumās roadmap in its current state and for the Ethereum Foundation to continue building using the same slow nā steady approach/ethos. E.g. š
Alright, thatās each sideās āquarter inch drill bitā.
From here on out, weāll be focusing on Side Aās desires, ācause theyāre the upstarts bringing the fight for change.
And if you dig down into what they want more than faster transactions and an EF leadership reorg ā their āquarter inch hole in the dry wallā is:
A hyper-present, charismatic leader/cult of personality that they can rally behind.
You know the typeā¦
Someone thatās trawling through X/Twitter comments, counteracting FUD, shitposting here and there ā but more than anything: getting the broader community excited about the L1.
ā¦but Side Aās deepest desires? (Their āshelf full of books that make them look smartā?).
This one is so simple that itās going to feel anti-climatic at firstā¦
They just want $ETHās price to pick back up.
At its core, thatās what seems to be driving all of this:
$ETHās price has been flat ā they want that to change ā so theyāre trying to shake things up with shifts in leadership and roadmap.
Our bet is: the moment $ETH enters price discovery, the vast majority of this anger/worry will be quickly dispelled, as the collective thinking switches back to: if it aināt broke, donāt fix it.
Say it with us now:
āHa! Kind of a dumb thing to be fighting about, all things considered.ā
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COTD: ARE WE GOING TO PEAK IN Q4? THIS CHART SUGGESTS WE ARE š
We donāt have any scientific evidence to back this up, butā¦
We believe microwave minutes are longer than normal minutes.
We donāt know how it works exactly, but hunger and anticipation somehow join forces to make each microwave minute feel like an hour.
The same thing happens in the lead-up to the first new all-time high of a bull run.
Hunger and anticipation for new price discovery leads us all to check the patterns from previous cycles and compare them to where weāre at in the present day.
ā¦but once new all-time highs are broken, we all kinda forget about those same charts.
But the Milk Man? The Milk Man doesnāt forget. And we think itās high time to check in again.
The black line below is $BTCās price in the current cycle, while everything else is from previous cycles:
See how weāre most closely correlated with the 2015-2018 cycle in blue?
If that correlation holds up, it should mean two things:
While $BTC isnāt likely to pull the same returns as the 2015-2018 cycle, weāre still far from done yet.
Weāll likely see a market peak in Q4 of this year.
Now, see how there are dips and troughs throughout every single one of these cycles?
Take those troughs as an added reminder not to psych yourself out every time we see a pullback between now and Q4 (remember, these things take time and are never smooth).
Got it? Good.
(Oh, and if you want weekly updates on where we are in the current cycle, so you can time your buying and selling with better accuracy ā this year, and beyond š weāve got just the thing).
Alright, Milk Man out!
MILK ROAD PRO PORTFOLIO UPDATES š
The president launched a memecoin, Bitcoin hit new all-time highs, we have a new SEC chairā¦
It has been a wild couple of days in crypto! Which means itās high time we check and see how our portfolio is faring.
ICYMI: Like clock-work, every Tuesday, we share our updated list of investments from the Milk Road PRO Portfolio.
Disclosure: We are not a day trading portfolio so donāt expect a high volume of trades. Read our āhow to build a crypto portfolio in 2024ā report to learn more about our portfolio strategy.
Portfolio performance š
The Milk Road PRO Portfolio saw a moderate increase over the past 7 days. Our portfolio value is at $131.2K, up 12.68% since last week.
Portfolio prices are updated daily at 2:00 AM ET.
The markets are on fire right now, and just like we said in our last update, the "sell the news" scenario didnāt happen. Even with Trump staying completely silent about crypto, things are still looking strong.
But hereās the jaw-dropper: over the weekend, Trump made waves by launching his own memecoin, $TRUMP. It hit an insane $70 billion market cap at its peak!
Crazy, right? Weāre still processing how wild this is!
Now, we just need to give him a little time to catch his breath before we start seeing any real impact or potential new crypto legislation. No pressure, Donaldābut letās not keep us waiting too long! š¤£
Portfolio changes š
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PRO REVIEW OF THE WEEK
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Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is now official. The best part? The website has a huge dogecoin on it. So insane.
Rex Shares has filed for a $DOGE and $TRUMP ETF. $TRUMP getting an ETF proposal just 4 days after its launch is wild. Bold move by Rex.
World Liberty Financial goes on a buying spree. Theyāve bought $47M of $ETH and $wBTC each. Reason? To celebrate Trump coming into office. Todayās cookies are giving me such top cycle vibes.
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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.