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🥛 Why we're staying risk-off 🚫
PLUS: Bitcoin ETFs just went ‘full Pac-Man’ 🍽️
Chevy Cassar
April 25, 2025
Today’s edition is brought to you by EarnPark – a lending platform offering high-yield products on crypto assets.
GM. This is Milk Road – your crypto Slap Chop! We slice n’ dice crypto news into tasty bite-sized pieces.
Here’s what we got for you today:
✍️ $BTC ETFs just went full Pac-Man
✍️ Hot take: the market needs its spirit dampened
🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Are Crypto Markets Ready to Run or Setting a Trap? What Investors Need to Know
🍪 This might be the biggest flex in crypto history
THE BITCOIN ETFS WENT FULL PAC-MAN THIS WEEK 🍽️
The $BTC ETFs are looking REEEAL healthy right now!
We’ve seen a 17,886% increase in week-on-week net flows
These flows are spread across multiple funds (not just BlackRock)
The week’s not even out and we’re already deleting previous records
Here’s what we’re taking away from the last few weeks of data…
1/ We saw $15M of net inflows last week…and $2.68B so far this week!
The effect that a little bit of good news can have on investors’ mindset is crazy.
2/ BlackRock, Fidelity, and Ark making up 85% of the flows
Last year, BlackRock tended to lead these flows by a country mile, often carrying the bulk of the load and combating outflows all on their own.
But it looks like those days may be waning – Ark and Fidelity have made up ~40% of the net inflows so far this week!
(The less we’re relying on a single fund’s inflows, the better.)
3/ This is the third largest week of inflows (so far)
Right now, weekly ETF net inflows are sitting at $2.68B.
If we want to take the number one spot for largest week of inflows ever ($3.35B), we’ll need to see $661M of net inflows hit the ETFs by the end of today’s trading hours.
(We’ll let you know how it shakes out the moment the data hits – just make sure you’re following us on Twitter/X.)
The takeaway: sentiment shifted (hard) this week.
The big question: how long will this new-found momentum last?
Keep scrolling to find out…
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HOT TAKE: THE MARKET NEEDS ITS SPIRIT DAMPENED 🌧️
The market is WAY too excited for our liking!
It's like investors are spending their paycheck before it has hit their account…
Everyone’s risk appetite is back
The market’s problems aren’t yet solved
The required solutions are still a ways away
Here’s a closer look at what we’re seeing…
1/ Everyone’s risk appetite is back (with a vengeance)
Exhibit A:
See the yellowy-green bars sitting between $81k-$84k, within the red box in the image below?
Those bars collectively represent close to $2B worth of leveraged Bitcoin long positions – and that’s just on Binance!
Aka: close to $2B worth of loans that have been taken out on Binance in order to bet that Bitcoin’s price will go up.
Exhibit B:
High Risk sectors have made the most gains over the last 7 days, far and away!
(Btw, PolitiFi = political memecoins) 👇
2/ This shift in sentiment came thanks to trade war hopium
Crypto markets saw a HUGE shift in sentiment and momentum over the past week, thanks to two pieces of positive news surrounding the trade wars…
What’s easy to forget is: these deals can take a minute or two to figure out. 👇
…plus, they require both parties to come to the table.
I.e. Even if the US is going to be “very nice to China” it doesn’t mean China is going to accept the offering (or even entertain negotiations). 👇
3/ The market-turning long-term solutions we want aren’t yet in reach
The two solutions on the table are…
An end to the global trade war (again, these negotiations could take a minute)
A Fed pivot (aka: Jerome Powell starts pumping sweet sweet cash into the system)
It’s anyones guess which one comes first – but the current risk-on behavior would make you think they’ve already happened!
The takeaway: it sure FEELS like we’re back!
But until we have confirmation of a trade deal or Fed pivot, market sentiment can still collapse as easily as it rose.
Until one of the above two solutions are met, we’ll be staying conservative with our allocations and not giving in to temptation – aka: memecoins, AI tokens and leverage.
(Lord give us strength.)
But with all that said…we’re still long term giga bulls.
In fact, we believe Bitcoin will reclaim its all-time highs by Q4 of this year!
We’re so sure about this that we’re willing to put our money where our mouth is…
👉 Anyone that signs up to Milk Road PRO between now and the end of April will get:
20% OFF their subscription cost for 1 year
Their subscription costs fully refunded if $BTC doesn’t pass ATHs ($109k) before Oct 31, 2025.
That means as long as you stay subscribed through till November of this year, you’ll have your subscription costs fully de-risked.
If the market rips → your gains can offset your already discounted subscription costs.
If the market dips → your subscription costs will be fully refunded.
Click here to de-risk your learning. 👇
WILL TRUMP DROP TARIFFS IN AN ATTEMPT TO SAVE THE ECONOMY? 👀
👉 What is the end state of tariffs?
👉 Will we see a bilateral deal focused on China?
👉 How long can markets tolerate this uncertainty?
…can I let you in on a little secret? I have no idea.
Though, to be fair – most people don’t…but Ram Ahluwalia ain’t ‘most people’.
He’s a macro expert, founder of Lumida Wealth, and recent guest on The Milk Road Show – where he helped answer all of the above questions!
It’s a banger of an episode – don’t miss it! 👇
Want front-row access to Avalanche’s next chapter? Head to Avalanche Summit in London for all the exciting announcements!*
This might be the biggest flex in crypto history. Someone mined 50 $BTC in 2010 when it was worth less than $5. They now moved it for the first time, sitting at nearly $5M. Like we said, biggest flex.
* Seven Nation Army chant intensifies. * Tether increases its stake in Juventus (a popular European soccer team) to over 10%.
New Bitcoin price predictions, baaaby! ARK Invest thinks $BTC could reach $2.4M by 2030. Let’s just hope they’re right.
We’re hosting meetups, baaaby! In case you’re heading to Consensus Toronto or Permissionless in New York, come grab a beer with the Milk Road crew. We’ll see you there!
What do stock trading, sports betting, and crypto baskets have in common? They’re all available on Crypto.com.**
*this is sponsored content.
**this is partner content.
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