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GM. This is Milk Road, your straight shooting friend in crypto – we lay out the good AND the bad.

Here’s what we got for you today:

• ✍️ The bull case for this market

• ✍️ The bear case for this market

• 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: 7 Charts That Signal a New Bitcoin ATH + $MSTR Price Prediction w/ Bitcoin Magazine PRO Lead Analyst

• 🍪 ETH’s Pectra upgrade is live (do you wanna learn more?)

THE BULL CASE FOR THE CURRENT MARKET 🐂

The bulls and bears on either side of the current market are each getting LOUDER!

But LOUD doesn’t necessarily mean RIGHT.

(Otherwise my 3 y/o nephew Jeffrey would be right about everything – and he’s convinced the Federal Reserve isn’t going to cut this year…such an idiot!)

So what arguments are the bears and bulls making, and where do we stand on all of it?

Let’s start with the bull case:

1/ The US and China have been quietly improving relations

China exempted 25% of US imports from tariffs just last week – this is a solid first step in ending the trade war.

2/ China and the US are due to sit n’ talk trade deals as soon as Friday

Giving bulls hope that all of the worry around ‘tit-for-tat tariffs leading to restricted growth’ may soon be put to bed.

3/ Meanwhile, liquidity (aka: fresh cash) is being released into the system

China just lowered its rates from 1.5% to 1.4% (making loans more accessible for its citizens) and cut reserve requirements for banks by 0.5% (allowing them to loan more money out).

The result: more money entering the global economy.

4/ The Federal Reserve may follow suit

If the US economy slows enough, the Fed will likely step in with rate cuts of their own to stimulate growth.

The result: EVEN MORE money entering the global economy.

Ok. Damn. That sounds pretty awesome…

How could someone be bearish in the face of all of this?

Scroll to the next article to find out! 👇

THE BEAR CASE FOR THE CURRENT MARKET 🐻

In a nutshell, the bear thesis goes like this…

All of the bull’s arguments hinge on either one or both of the following happening:

• The trade war ends

• The Federal Reserve pivots to ‘print baby, print!’

Neither has happened yet, and both could take a hot minute to actually materialize.

Translation: the vibe has shifted positive, but the fundamental facts of the market are still bearish – so why go risk-on??

And if you look at what the big-dogs are doing, their actions are more in line with ‘markets are in bad shape’ than they are ‘party town, population: my wallet’. 👇

1/ Institutional shorts are at all-time highs

In April, Hedge funds placed more bets that the stock market would go down than ever before (more than even COVID)!

2/ The ‘Coinbase Premium’ just flipped negative again

The Coinbase Premium = the price difference of $BTC listed on Coinbase Pro vs. other exchanges. 

A lot of big-dogs trade using Coinbase Pro, meaning:

• Positive Coinbase Premium = institutions are bullish (and buying)

• Negative Coinbase Premium = institutions are bearish (and selling)

…and guess who just flipped negative again!

3/ If all of these trade talks are so positive, why isn’t the stock market reacting?

So where do we stand on all of this? Here’s our PRO team’s take:

“From a macro and sentiment standpoint we continue to be in an awkward place. 

Tariffs and the trade war are no doubt continuing to put pressure on the economy, yet investor sentiment appears to be calling for the worst being behind us. 

If we don’t get good news soon, we think economic data is going to get worse and push markets back down.”

But that’s not to say they’re not buying – they are! 

 If you wanna know what they’re allocating to, go PRO and read this article!

BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪

What if you could have a more energy-efficient Bitcoin? That’s exactly what Alephium, a new L1, is building with its sustainable PoW.*

No rate cut from the Fed. No surprises here but we’re looking set for a potential cut in June.

ETH’s Pectra upgrade is live! The key change: Ethereum just got WAY more user-friendly. Want a break down of what’s new in tomorrow’s edition? 1 click of this link = 1 vote.

Coinbase is getting into gaming? Don’t know about you but we didn’t have this in our 2025 bingo card.

We’re hiring! We’re starting something called "Milk Road Macro” and we’re looking for a content creator to lead efforts on the podcast and X. Check out the role and see if it’s your vibe.

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*this is sponsored content.
**this is partner content.

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