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GM. This is Milk Road – the newsletter that is once again doxing their parents, so you can learn from their mistakes.

Here’s what we got for you today:

• ✍️ Solana breaks all-time highs 

• ✍️ How high can Bitcoin actually go?

• 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Is This Crypto Cycle Going to Be Bigger Than the Last One? w/ Kyle Reidhead 

• 🍪 Gensler gone, $XRP soaring

SOLANA BREAKS ALL-TIME HIGHS 🔥

The question for the past week or so?

The answer, as of Thursday 10:46pm ET:

From ~$8 in the final days of 2022, to $260+ last night! That’s about a 32x in just under two years.

First off: BIG congrats to our PRO members who bought after the bat signal went up last October!

Second: where to from here?

Our NOPs (Nerds On Payroll, aka: PRO researchers) have take profit targets set from $500, all the way up to $1000 (if it gets there).

…but doubling/quadrupling the current market cap of ~ $120B is no small feat! So how’re we going to get there?

Short/hand wavey answer: from the same 5 forces that drive/hinder all crypto prices.👇

• Innovation

• Regulation

• Macro 

• Narratives

• Wild Cards (War, Currency Failures, Hacks, and Scams)

(Full description here)

Solana specific answer: In the near-term, the potential for US-based $SOL spot ETFs seem to be the most promising narrative right now.

As of this writing VanEck, 21Shares, Canary Capital, and Bitwise have all filed applications to launch $SOL ETFs.

The crazy part? The word “progressing” is being used to describe the process.

Which doesn’t seem all that wild at first, sure…

But once you consider the boiler plate description of the past year or so has been “not an ice cube’s chance in hell” – it really helps to add momentum to the narrative.

And that’s all you need for a narrative pump to begin. No concrete dates or confirmations. Just whispers and rumors that build hope.

We saw something similar happen with Bitcoin’s ETF narrative and subsequent launch – which, together, helped to ~4x its ~$500B market cap in October, to ~$2T today. 👇

The best bit? Solana is just the beginning. 

There’s a whole slew of tokens that are setting up to not only reclaim their all-time highs, but break well beyond them!

(What a time to be alive/in crypto!).

Now, if anyone needs me, I’ll be getting this printed on a t-shirt so I can wear it to Christmas lunch (can you guess what the guy who is 100% allocated to $SOL told his dad to buy?).

(Fun fact: that $1k would now be worth ~$12k…that’s a lot of art supplies, pops!)

HOW HIGH CAN BITCOIN ACTUALLY GO? 👀

Check out Bitcoin’s cycle returns over the years:

• 26,000% (April 2012 - Dec 2013) 

• 12,000% (July 2015 - Dec 2017) 

• 1,900% (January 2019 - Nov 2021) 

Our reactions right out of the gate:

1. Holy sh*t! That’s a 65,000% increase in 10yrs.

2. We wish we’d allocated earlier (like, WAY earlier).

3. These returns are wild…but they’re also diminishing over time.

On that last point – why are the returns diminishing each cycle? 

The larger an asset gets → the more investment is required to significantly move the price → as long as an asset continues to grow, the returns begin to diminish over time.

And right now, Bitcoin is hovering around $2T in total market value.

…so how much higher can it go from here?

So far, this cycle (in green) we are tracking the peak-to-peak returns from the last bull run (orange) almost perfectly. 👇

And right now, a lot of people are betting we’re going to see another 2x from here.

…but for that to happen, we’ll need to match the peak-to-peak returns of the last cycle.

(Something that has never happened before).

Is it a possibility now that the ETFs exist and the idea of a US ‘Strategic Bitcoin Reserve’ is being floated?

Sure.

But even if we don’t 2x from here – let’s say we only move up another 50% (to around ~$150k) in the next 6-12 months – that’s still INSANE! 

That would mean adding one trillion dollars to Bitcoin’s current total market value of $2T.

It took Bitcoin 12 years to reach a $1T market cap – the idea that we might be about to add that value in a 6-12 month time frame isn’t anything to scoff at!

But shoot, we haven’t answered the question…

How much higher can Bitcoin go from here?

We’re going to hand this over to our Chief NOP (Chief Nerd On Payroll, aka: Head Of Research) Kyle Reidhead.

He joined us on today’s episode of The Milk Road Show, covering:

• Why now is the time to flip to a bearish mindset

• Why you should ignore price and use indicators instead

• What is the probability that Bitcoin makes history and outperforms its previous cycle?

This episode is dripping with so much alpha it needs a damn towel!

Check it out here 👇

YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts

BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪

The Block is hosting its first-ever conference, Emergence, this December in Prague. Extravagant, eh? We love a new conference vibe, so here’s a treat: use code “Emergence20” to get 20% off your ticket!*

Gensler gone, $XRP soaring. Ripple has been battling the SEC over the past 4 years but soon, it’ll be in the rear-view mirror. “Objects are further than they appear”.

Europe is now interested in Microstrategy. Allianz insurance scooped up nearly 25% of Microstrategy’s convertible note offering. Looks like Allianz is making sure it doesn’t repeat the same mistake as its government *cough* germany *cough*.

We’re currently growing our team and are on the hunt for someone to lead partnerships at Milk Road. Think you’ve got what it takes? Click above to read the job description and apply.

Bitkey’s three-key security ensures peace of mind. Even if you lose your Bitkey wallet, you’ll still have access to your funds. Sweeeeet.*

*this is partner / sponsored content

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.