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- š„ Polymarket vs. mainstream polls š„
š„ Polymarket vs. mainstream polls š„
PLUS: Thoughts and prayers to Gary Gensler...
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GM. This is Milk Road ā we deliver crypto news, guaranteed fresh, in 5 mins or less.
Hereās what we got for you today:
āļø Polymarket vs. Mainstream polls
āļø Thoughts and prayers to Gary Gensler
šļø The Milk Road Show: From $170 Billion to $17 Trillion: Will Stablecoins 100x in the next 10 years? w/ Agoraās CEO
šŖ Uniswap launches permissionless bridging across 9 networks

POLYMARKET VS. MAINSTREAM POLITICAL POLLS š„
Is it just us?
Or does it feel like someone slipped mushrooms into the drink of mainstream election pollers and Polymarket bettors.
Both are following the same race (the 2024 US elections) ā but each side is seeing/experiencing/presenting two very different realities.
Hereās what weāre on about š
Mainstream polls:
Polymarket odds:
So howās this happening?
If we had to make a politically-uneducated guess, itād fall into one of these three categories:
1/ The simple answer (duh)
One data set is right, the other is wrong. Weāll find out post-election.
2/ The āmoney meets convictionā theory
A bunch of bettors are convinced Trump is going to win the election and ā even at todayās skewed odds ā see a potential ~54% return on investment as easy money.
3/ The ābettor is betterā approach
Say youāre all-in on Trump, have a bunch of money in the bank, and want to support him as a candidate.
You could donate a big chunk of change to a super PAC that will then fund his campaignā¦
OR, you could:
Take that moneyā¦
Dump it into Polymarket
Skew the odds in Trumpās favor (knowing that mainstream media reports Polymarket odds)
Lift the perception of the campaignās success in the process (while still having a chance of not only getting your money back, but making a little profit along the way)
Hereās the secret edge buried within that last option:
Traditional political polls will ask a pool of people, across a range of demographics, who theyāre voting for and try their best to extrapolate that out to a national average.
Whether one voter whispers āTrumpā or yells āDONALD J. TRUMP, AMERICAāS SAVIOR!ā down the phone line when answering the polling survey ā it doesnāt hold any more or less weight.
Itās still one data point in the poll.
But with betting, your effect on the odds can change based on how much money youāre putting down.
(Want to try and shift the collective perspective on whoās leading the race? Pay more).
The idea that Trump bettors are smaller in number, but are placing bigger bets, is a nice theoryā¦
But right now, the data doesnāt back it up:
First things first: how cool is it that blockchain allows anyone to view/scrutinize this data?
Secondā¦there are more individual bettors backing Trump to win over Harris (97k vs. 73k) with average bets on either side being more or less the same ($4,451 vs. $4,421).
Could individuals be creating multiple wallets to hide this concentration of opinion?
Sure. But thatās a whole other rabbit hole ā and our tin foil hat is in the shop right now.
Good news is: weāll all find out which data-set is correct on November 5th.
Whatās the one token everyone wants in their portfolio? Bitcoin. šŖ
How to increase your exposure to the Bitcoin Network? Bitcoin Layer 2s. š
How to increase the number of Bitcoin Layer 2s? BitcoinOS. š
BitcoinOS, who verified the first ZK-Proof on Bitcoin, aims to unite crypto back to Bitcoin. Hereās their plan:
Convert Bitcoin Layer 1s into true Layer 2s with trustless $BTC bridging and Bitcoin-level security š
Deploy all Ethereum, Solana, and Cosmos projects to Bitcoin via BOS š
So if youāre a Bitcoin or L2 enthusiast, see what BitcoinOS is all about.

THE US IS STILL THE CRYPTO HUB OF THE WORLD (BY A LONG SHOT) š
Damn!
If we had a humiliation fettish, weād be so freakinā jealous of Gary Gensler right now.
Despite all his efforts to squash the US crypto industry through vague regulation and āarbitrary and capriciousā lawsuits ā heās still failing miserably!
(Some people would pay good money for that kind of public embarrassment).
Throughout the peak of Garyās regulatory rampage, the US crypto industry not only survived, but outpaced every other country in crypto value ($$$) received! š
Meanwhile, VC money continues to pour into the US crypto industry! š
Companies headquartered in the United States pulled in 56% of all VC capital invested in Q3 of 2024. š¤Æ
The next best?
UK: 11%
Singapore: 7%
Hong Kong 4%
And this isnāt the result of some blind patriotism.
Money flows to where the founders are ā and right now, 46.7% of all crypto builders are based in the US.
Now, hereās the kicker:
If regulations loosen up ā particularly with a potential Trump return ā we could see a massive boom that pushes the US even further ahead.
ā¦and if we donāt?
Well, if this data is anything to go by, the US crypto industry will continue to do its thing ā pace unchanged (itās a win/mega win).
Thoughts and prayers to Gary.

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.