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GM. This is Milk Road, the daily newsletter that delivers KPM and LPM in equal measure.

(Knowledge Per Minute / Laughs Per Minute).

Here’s what we got for you today:

• ✍️ Global M2 vs. Bitcoin

• ✍️ SAB 121 is about to get the axe

• 🥛 Milk Road PRO Portfolio updates

• 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: How to Trade the Next Week: Trump, Macro Factors, & Inflation Report w/ Lark Davis

• 🍪 JP Morgan predicts massive inflows for Solana and XRP ETFs if approved

GLOBAL M2 VS. BITCOIN 🥊

Wow. Ok, that headline came in way too hot.

Why’s there a boxing emoji in there?

Global M2 Money Supply and Bitcoin ain’t in a fight…what they’re in is more of a marriage than anything. 

Which makes sense. 

M2 = an estimation of physical cash in circulation + money in bank accounts + retail money market mutual funds. More money in the system = more money to be spent buying Bitcoin.

Long story longer: where M2 goes, Bitcoin tends to follow (trailing by about 70 days). 

Which is great when M2 has been increasing! But unfortunately – today ain’t that day. 👇

If the correlation holds up, Bitcoin may be about to fall in the coming months. 

That’s the bad news. The good news is, if 2024/2025 is anything like the 2016/2017 bull run, this potential dip could just be a breather:

So what catalysts could push Bitcoin back up? 

Well, some money printing and rate cuts wouldn’t hurt. 

(Leading to more money being freed up and injected into the financial system, and eventually finding its way into Bitcoin).

…now, guess who’s going to have to print cash and slash rates in the second half of this year? Yep, it’s our shared relative with terrible money management skills: Uncle Sam.

The US government took out a whoooole bunch of loans during COVID. 👇

And in the second half of 2025, those debts will be coming due. So in order to refinance, the government will probably do something like this:

Print a metric sh*t ton of cash → pay those loans → lower interest rates → take out new loans at the lowered rates they just set.

And if you’re thinking: 

“Wait…they’re going to print cash and lower rates–devaluing the money in my savings account and lowering the interest I earn on it–just to save themselves from their bad spending habits??”

Then we’d like to give you a warm welcome to “Why we need hard assets like Bitcoin 101” (please meet your teacher, Professor Milk Man).

The overarching takeaway with all of this:

Whether Bitcoin divorces from M2 in the first half of the year and starts climbing, or waits for liquidity to get pumped into the system first: 

The long term outlook is still bright!

GARY GENSLER’S SAB 121 IS ABOUT TO GET THE AXE 🪓

Which of the following statements is true?

• Trump is about to do crypto a big service.

• Trump is about to do a big crypto dinner service.

A: They both are.

This happening on Friday:

(Super cringe, but we’ll take it).

And on Monday, this is expected to be happening:

…cool. What the hell is SAB 21?

We talked about SAB 121 way back in May of last year, but basically, it’s an accounting rule made by Gary Gensler’s SEC (please, hold your boos), which requires institutions that hold crypto on behalf of their customers to report these assets as liabilities on their balance sheets. 

(Essentially making financial institutions that hold crypto look way weaker than they are, incentivizing banks to stay away from digital currencies in the process).

Kinda like when our GM, Tyler, parks his beaten up, hand-me-down PT cruiser out the front of my house. 

(The house doesn’t change in any way – but the perception of its value does, and people stop visiting).

Good news (re: SAB 121) is: Trump is apparently going to repeal it on the first day of his presidency! 👇

Meaning US-based financial institutions may soon have the green light to start custodying crypto without any accounting-based red tape.

Hell (and we cannot stress this enough) yeah!

MILK ROAD PRO PORTFOLIO UPDATES 📊

Wanna know what tokens we’ve added/removed from our portfolio? Which new upstarts have been added to our watchlist?

Well, you’re in the right place!

Like clock-work, every Tuesday, we’re here to share our updated list of investments from the Milk Road PRO Portfolio. 

Disclosure: We are not a day trading portfolio so don’t expect a high volume of trades. Read our “how to build a crypto portfolio in 2024” report to learn more about our portfolio strategy.

Portfolio performance 📉

The Milk Road PRO Portfolio saw a moderate decrease over the past 7 days. Our portfolio value is at $114.7K, down 7.85% since last week.

It was another challenging week in the markets, marked by a sea of red. Interestingly, the narrative seems to have shifted—from “selling the news” after the Trump inauguration to “buying the news” 🤣 Whether this holds true remains to be seen. 

Last week brought some positive economic signals. A strong jobs report was accompanied by encouraging data on wholesale prices for December, which rose just 0.2%—well below the anticipated 0.4% increase. 

Are we returning to the scenario where strong economic data leads to a bearish outlook because it reduces pressure on central banks to cut interest rates? Perhaps.

But tomorrow, the spotlight will be on the CPI report, a key indicator of inflation trends. This could shape the tone for the week ahead.

Although markets have already undergone a sharper-than-expected 15% correction, it remains unclear whether this downward momentum will persist. Despite the short-term volatility, the long-term outlook remains optimistic, with a bullish trajectory still on the horizon.

Portfolio changes 👀

BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪

The crypto conference scene in 2025 is buzzing. We cover the biggest conferences in our guide so you can collect some free merch—because that’s what conferences are really about, right?

El Salvador plans to install a Bitcoin node in every home. Bukele is truly turning El Salvador into a crypto powerhouse. Never thought we’d be saying that.

TON plans to expand to US. They’re really capitalizing early on this whole pro-crypto president thing.

JP Morgan predicts massive inflows for Solana and XRP ETFs if approved. Jamie Dimon shits on Bitcoin in an interview while his company makes these crazy predictions - make it make sense.

We’re hiring! We’re now down to just 4 positions - so hurry before someone else beats you to it.

Crypto cards are a surefire way to grow your crypto holdings. Just go about your normal life, swipe for your usual purchases and then get crypto rewards for free. Simple enough.

MILKY MEMES 🤣

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.