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GM. This is Milk Road. We break down crypto news faster than you can break a New Year's resolution. 

Here’s how we’re kicking off the year:

• What to expect in January 👀

• 2024 predictions from a crypto VC 🔮

• The U.S. government dropped 6 charges against SBF 🍪

WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY 👀

I have 1 big goal in 2024… look at crypto prices less. 

48 hours into the new year I’m here to report that:

• BTC is up 8%.

• Most of the top 100 cryptocurrencies are in the green.

• A few altcoins are up double-digit percentages.

• I went from I *have* a goal → I *had* a goal.

Oh well, better luck next year!

The big question investors are wondering now is… will the rally continue?

3 big factors could help decide that:

1/ Spot Bitcoin ETF approvals.

The world’s largest asset managers (BlackRock, VanEck, etc.) have been trying to launch a spot Bitcoin ETF for months. 

Well, it looks like we could be in the final stretch…

• Reuters is reporting that asset managers might get word about approvals today or tomorrow. 

• Fox Business journalists are saying the SEC is “swamped with paperwork” so asset managers likely won’t hear back from them until the decision deadline on Jan. 10.

Our sources are reporting (and I quote): “Nobody knows for sure. And asking us ‘Wen ETF’ every 20 minutes won’t make it happen any faster…”

Why this matters: In the short term, people are speculating that this will unlock trillions of dollars in institutional money, pushing Bitcoin’s price up. 

In the long term, people are hoping it will have the same success as Gold ETFs. (TL;DR - Gold went on an 8-year bull run, hit a new all-time high, and briefly became the world’s biggest ETF).

2/ Historical trends.

There are 2 big historical trends we’re looking at this month…

BTC: Bitcoin ended the year on a 4-month green streak (i.e. it had positive monthly returns in September, October, November, AND December).

That’s the good news. 

The bad news is… the last 2 times that happened (in 2015 and 2016), Bitcoin followed it up with a red January.

ETH: Both of Ethereum’s largest rallies have started in… January.

Check it out. It happened back in 2017 and 2020…

… and now some are speculating a January-ETH rally could happen again this year.

(Especially with a major network upgrade and potential ETH ETF launching soon).

3/ Token unlocks.

Pop Quiz: What do Injective ($INJ) and Optimism ($OP) have in common? 

a/ They’ve been two of the hottest tokens in crypto. Both are up 100% over the last month and have been the talk of Twitter.

b/ They both have big token unlocks in January. Millions of INJ and OP tokens worth between $87M and $136M will be unlocked later this month.

And they aren’t the only projects with token unlocks either: 

Milk Road Rule #58… where there is a token unlock, there is price volatility.

So, watch out. These projects could have a Rocky Road in the weeks ahead (and we ain’t talking Ben & Jerry’s).

2024 PREDICTIONS FROM A CRYPTO VC 🔮

Every Milk Road subscriber is awesome. I’m like a mom, and can’t pick favorites...

…but if I did, I’d have to admit Fred Wilson is one of them. 

• He’s been a VC since 1986. #OGstatus

• He founded Union Square Ventures and invested in companies like Twitter, Tumblr, Etsy, and MongoDB.

Plus, he’s been writing a new post on his blog (AVC - Musings of a VC in NYC) every weekday since September 2003. 

Mad respect. I’ve been writing this sucker for almost two years and feel like I deserve a purple heart award... 

Anyway, Fred just dropped a new blog titled “What Will Happen In 2024”. Here are 5 of the biggest takeaways:

1/ 2024 is going to be a terrific year for tech.

Coming from a guy who’s been in the tech game longer than I’ve been alive, that’s saying something. 

2/ Innovation never waits for rules and regulations… but it eventually gets it. 

2023 was the year crypto got hit by a full frontal attack from U.S. regulators and lawmakers. Luckily, it was able to hold its ground… 

Fred thinks 2024 will be the year that U.S. regulators and lawmakers finally come to terms with Web3. 

3/ Blockchain tech needs its “ChatGPT moment”.

A.I. had its big coming-out party last year. The big catalyst: ChatGPT.

Developers use it to help them code. Analysts use it to help break down data sets. School kids use it for educational purposes to cheat on assignments/tests. 

It took 40 years, but A.I. finally hit mainstream adoption. 

Fred thinks 2024 will be the year that mainstream decentralized applications begin to emerge for crypto. 

4/ A.I. and Web3 are two sides of the same coin. 

There’s been a big debate over the last year: TeamAI or TeamWeb3? 

(I haven’t seen an argument this intense since middle school girls were arguing #TeamJacob or #TeamEdward).

Well, Fred thinks they’re two sides of the same coin…

• AI will help make Web3 usable for mainstream applications. 

• Web3 will help us trust AI. 

• Together they will lead to a more powerful, more resilient, more trusted, and more equitable internet. 

5/ VC investing won’t grow much this year.

Fred’s reasoning? Limited partners (aka the people who provide money to VCs) have taken a beating recently and are cautious with their funds.

As a result, VCs are struggling to raise funds, scaling back, or shutting down completely.

And because venture funds usually have a ten-year life cycle, Fred thinks it’ll take a few more years to reset.

BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪

Check out the top news stories from 2023. Look back on a wild 2023 with this consolidated list of the top headlines from last year. —DL News

The U.S. government dropped 6 charges against fkSBF. As a result, fkSBF won’t be prosecuted for political campaign finance violations.

The AVAX Foundation announced it was going to invest in memecoins. Basing the criteria for investment around metrics such as liquidity, social sentiment, project maturity, and the number of holders.

VanEck released a new Bitcoin ETF commercial. The battle between ETF applicants continues to heat up… will there be a round of Super Bowl ads coming our way?

Total value locked across DeFi protocols has surged to levels last seen prior to the collapse of FTX. Just as Bitcoin crosses the $45K mark for the first time since April 2022.

Bitcoin exchange reserves hit a multi-week low. A sign that long-term thinkers are continuing to HODL at these price levels.

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.