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GM. This is Milk Road – the newsletter delivering spicy takes, that you’ll hate yourself for agreeing with.

Here’s what we got for you today:

• ✍️ Crypto’s real value = centralized apps

• ✍️ Here’s what’s next for crypto ETFs in 2025

• 🥛 Milk Road PRO Portfolio updates

• 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Solana, XRP, DOGE? Bloomberg Analyst Predicts 2025 Crypto ETF Launches & Flows

• 🍪 Yuga Labs has sold the Meebits NFT collection

WHAT IS THE ‘FAT APP THESIS’ AND IS IT CORRECT?

UDP, IRC, ICMP, SNMP, SFTP, SSL, POP, HTTPS, IMAP, DHCP, HTTP, HTTPS.

I haven’t accidentally sat on my keyboard.

These are the twelve different protocols (think: rule sets) that make up ‘the internet’.

But you might not have known that, ‘cause these protocols aren’t exactly household names.

Instead, when you think ‘the internet’, you think ‘Google’ or ‘Bing’ (I’m kidding. Don’t @ me).

What I’m getting at is that the internet may be built on top of these protocols, but the value it generates doesn’t accrue to them. Instead, it accrues to applications. 

(I.e. Instagram, Facebook, Netflix, Internet Explorer – again? Ah, it’s too easy at this point).

They have the users, which means they have the leverage – they can charge more, and negotiate with other products, protocols, and companies to lower their prices.

(E.g. Apple was able to force the music industry to sell songs for $1 on iTunes, and can get away with taking 30% of app revenue on the App Store – cause they have the users).

So the big question is: will the same thing happen in crypto?

Kyle (our head of research) just wrote a tweet thread on it yesterday, and I’ve asked him to break it down further here – so I’m going to pass the mic over to him. 

(If anyone needs me, I’ll be looking at my $SOL portfolio and crying – Kyle, take it away…)

The general consensus right now is that, yes, the vast amount of value will accrue to crypto applications, not the protocols they’re built upon.

And I tend to agree. 👇

But what I think most people are wrong about is which apps will win.

In crypto today, there’s a lot of weight put on decentralization, because that’s one of the core tenets of the technology. 

And this has led to many wagering that decentralized applications like Aave’s lending platform, or Uniswap’s DEX will be the ones to soak up most of the value.

But I can’t help but feel they’re missing the bigger picture here.

The die-hard builders/users of the early internet loved (and still love) the Linux operating system, because it’s open-source, highly customizable, and considered extremely secure.

But it does all of that at the expense of the user experience (which means Linux’s user adoption stays relegated to the ‘enthusiast’ crowd).

And if crypto is ever going to go mainstream – my gut says that finicky, fragmented decentralized experiences are going to be outpaced in users/value accrual by easy-to-use, all-in-one solutions.

Analogy: why use a separate home phone, cell phone, GPS, mp3 player, camcorder, still camera, gaming device, watch, PDA, stop watch, etc…when you could just use an iPhone.

Will these all-in-one solutions be decentralized to the point of being ‘World War 3 resistant’? Probably not. But most people don’t care about that kind of stuff. 

As long as it's generally safe, easy to use, and better than what’s already being offered – people are likely going to adopt it.

Now this next bit might lose me my ‘crypto die-hard membership card’ – but I’m going to say it anyway:

I think the apps that will accrue the REAL value will be centralized (for now).

The Coinbase’s and Robinhood’s of the world are currently the ones accruing most of the users – and they show no signs of slowing down. This gives them leverage.

Coinbase integrating Morpho (the decentralized lending platform) into its app pushed Morpho waaay farther away from the user – because now, customers no longer need to move onchain to use Morpho.

But Morpho still agreed to the deal, because Coinbase is where the users are.

And that’s why I’m so bullish on $COIN and $HOOD – they have the leverage!

Things may change much further down the road if the "crypto ethos" of self-custody becomes more and more important…though I think we are still a long way from that happening. 

(And it may never happen).

But I’m not here to die on this hill – I’m here to get any feedback or critiques you may have on this thesis.

👉 Reply to this email to set me straight, pat me on the back, or do a mix of both.

ERIC BALCHUNAS JUST TOLD US WHAT’S NEXT FOR CRYPTO ETFS IN 2025 💪

• The path to creating a US-based Bitcoin Strategic Reserve is being researched

• Solana, Ripple, Dogecoin, and Litecoin all have 65-90% chances of getting an ETF

• JP Morgan (who have been famously anti-crypto) is now buying $BTC and $ETH ETFs

This time last year, all of the above would have seemed like pure, unadulterated pipe dreams.

But all of them are now not only a reality – but they’ve happened within the last month!

The floodgates feel like they’ve been well and truly opened, and now the next question is:

Where to next??

We just sat down with Eric Balchunas – analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, and the internet’s chosen ‘ETF whisperer’ – on today’s episode of The Milk Road Show.

And we hit him with a BUNCH of questions, like:

• Wen Bitcoin Strategic Reserve?

• Which altcoin ETFs are we likely to see this year?

• Will these altcoin ETFs get Bitcoin, or Ethereum-like flows?

• What innovations are we likely to see next in the ETF space?

(Plus a whole lot more!)

Here’s what you need to do now…

Click the episode link below → put your airpods on noise cancelling mode → sit back, relax, and absorb! 👇

YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts

MILK ROAD PRO PORTFOLIO UPDATES 📊

The dollar is weakening, stocks are up, gold is at all-time highs…

So why crypto no join party?

Is this an opportunity to buy the dip — or a sign that we should be getting out?

We’re answering exactly that in this week’s Milk Road PRO Portfolio update! 

Go PRO and keep scrolling to find out. 👇

Disclosure: We are not a day trading portfolio so don’t expect a high volume of trades. Read our “How To Build a Crypto Portfolio” report to learn more about our portfolio strategy.

Portfolio performance 📉

The Milk Road PRO Portfolio saw a moderate decrease over the past 7 days. Our portfolio value is at $103.2K, down 4.72% since last week.

Stocks and gold are hitting all-time highs, and the dollar is finally weakening. So, how much longer can crypto hold out before it makes its next big move up? 

To us, this feels like the calm before the storm—and hopefully, it's heading exactly where we all want it to. 🚀

Portfolio changes 👀

BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪

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Yuga Labs has sold the Meebits NFT collection. In case you haven’t heard of Meebits, it’s basically the forgotten child of Yuga Labs.

Google is “exploring ways to lower entry barriers so web2 users can easily use Bitcoin”. I think we can all agree that Google is a way better onboarding tool than memecoins.

Want to put your brand in front of 300K+ of the smartest/coolest people in the crypto industry? You’ve come to the right place.

Hyperliquid launches HyperEVM. These guys are building at a rapid pace!

We’ve outlined the best places to lend your Bitcoin. Spoiler alert: Nexo provides the highest APY.

**This is partner content.

MILKY MEMES 🤣

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.