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GM. This is Milk Road. When markets pull back, you can either laugh or cry (and right now, we think it’s about time for a laugh).

Here’s what we got for you today:

• ✍️ End QT → Save the market?

• 🥛 PRO “Where are we in the cycle?” indicators

• 🎙️ The Milk Road Show: Why the Bull Market Isn’t Over & How Memecoins Can Predict Crypto Cycles

• 🍪 Largest investment transaction in crypto

END QT → SAVE THE MARKET? 🤔

We love finding takes/projections on Twitter/X and following them as they unfold.

(We collect them, like a Magpie with a shiny object.)

And right now, we’ve got this Tweet from Benjamin Cowen on our watch list:

It’s early days yet, but so far, Ben has nailed the first two points of his prediction.

1/ Bitcoin dominance goes back over 60% ✅

$BTC dominance = how much of the total crypto market cap is made up of Bitcoin – and it hit 60% roughly 1 month after Ben’s post. 👇

2/ Market sells off / $ETH goes home ✅

You don’t need a chart to remind you that the market has sold off – but as for $ETH going home? That one, we’ll allow.

$ETH has been the hardest hit major token over the past 7 days, taking a 16% haircut. 

…and when you price Ethereum in Bitcoin (aka: how much $BTC will 1 $ETH buy you?), it’s back at 2020 levels! 😰

3/ The Federal Reserve ends Quantitative Tightening (QT) ❓

This one is still yet to be proven (though we do have some insights to share)…

But the most important question right now is: what the hell is QT?? Fair warning – you’re going to hate the visual I’m about to paint in your mind.

(It’ll start off great, then get way worse.) 

Ok, here goes: imagine the bathtub seen in The Big Short, with Margot Robbie.

Now, keep her accent, drop her voice a couple of octaves, and cover her in body hair…

BOOM! You’ve got me, in a bubble bath, explaining QT to you (sorry).

The basic premise is this: if you give money to the government, banks and other financial institutions, you boost the economy. If you take it away, you weaken the economy.

Quantitative Tightening is just a fancy term for the latter situation.

The Federal Reserve enacts QT by trimming its mortgage-backed securities (pulling money out of the banking system) and treasury holdings (pulling cash out of the broader market).

“Ok. Little disturbed by the visualization, but understood. Now, when can I expect QT to end and this market rally to begin?” – You, probably.

First off: we’re pretty much at ‘peak uncertainty’ right now, so nothing is set in stone.

That said – with this uncertainty-driven pullback, QT expectations have likely changed (and in our favor).

The Fed discussed easing QT at their last FOMC meeting (Jan 28-29), with many analysts wagering we’d see it start around June/July.

…but the market was in a way better spot back then – which means the Fed may now be incentivized to stop weakening the economy with QT, sooner rather than later.

Hell, in the past three days, the chances of QT ending by May have more than doubled (from 30% - 60%) according to Polymarket!

Right now, the most likely scenario on our bingo card look like this:

Weeks/months of pain, before the market gets its mojo back later in the year, leading to an extended bull run through 2026.

The end of QT will likely play a part in the turnaround – along with a wide range of other economic factors – if/when it happens.

In the meantime, we’re avoiding leverage like the plague, holding spot, and chilling.

(We recommend you do the same.)

THE DECLINE OF MEMECOINS = A WIN FOR ALTCOINS? 🤨

Another day, another diversified take on the current market!

On today’s episode of The Milk Road Show, we were joined by Andrew Lunardi, Head of Growth at Immutable.

If you’re on the lookout for more positive forward looking insights – you’re in luck!

Andrew remains bullish on the crypto market, particularly coming into the latter half of the year, based on:

• New regulatory clarity, inviting institutional investment

• New capital inflows, thanks to the increasing number of crypto ETFs

• The decline of memecoins, which could see capital rotate back into altcoins

Click below to watch it now! 👇

YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts

PRO “WHERE ARE WE IN THE CYCLE?” INDICATORS 🤔 

Knowing where we are in the crypto cycle is crucial for capturing the best opportunities.

The goal is to spot the bull market peak before the inevitable bear market hits your bags hard.

The big question being asked right now is: 

Is this pullback a pause before we go higher?

…or the beginning of the end?

To answer those questions, we use a select range of data.

Below are the 6 indicators we track, with a color-coded system to show how close they are to signalling the market peak:

🟢 Plenty of room to run 🏄

🟡 Getting closer to the top signal, but haven’t yet reached the mark ⚠️

🔴 We’ve hit the market top indicator 🚨

Every Thursday, we update these 6 indicators exclusively for PRO members.

Our advice? Don't wait for all of them to hit 🔴. It's better to take profits as they get closer to that point.

Let's dive in and see if we're anywhere near the top of this bull market. 👇

BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪

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Largest investment transaction in crypto! MGX invests $2B in Binance for a minority stake (100% in stablecoins).

Good news for Ripple! They’ve now gotten the license to be the first company to offer crypto payments in UAE.

Remember the $LIBRA scandal? Yep, the one with the Argentinian President and Hayden Davis. Interpol has now gotten involved in the investigation. Yikes, scary stuff.

Free DeFi webinar! This webinar, by ARCrypto, will teach you how to make money even when the market is trading horizontally (a kangaroo market).*

*this is sponsored content.

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.