🥛 Checking the markets pulse: June 2025 🩺

GM, this is Milk Road PRO. Time for our Monthly Market Pulse report — your regular dose of market intelligence that cuts through the noise and focuses on what actually matters.

Today we come bearing great news! 

Crypto crushed every other major asset class by nearly 2x last month, but most people are still staring at the wrong scoreboard waiting for Powell to save them.

Here's what caught our attention: 

While everyone's laser-focused on the Fed, the Dune index jumped from 50 to 71 (showing real onchain activity is surging), blockchain revenues hit $260 million while app revenues reached $377 million, and DEX volumes exploded to $474 billion. 

Plus, some of the best apps in crypto are generating huge revenue and using it to buy back their tokens.

The big takeaway? 

We're probably in the final stretch before the business cycle shifts into "macro summer" mode — but the next wave of liquidity might not come from where everyone's looking. 

Just like 2016-2017, when Bitcoin hit legendary highs while the Fed was actually raising rates.

So here's your monthly market health check-up, complete with the charts and metrics that matter most. 

Plus, we'll reveal our ballsy $1K all-in allocation to our PRO portfolio that's already paying 17% dividends. 

Oh and even better, the PRO team recorded a 1 hour internal research meeting discussing the details of this report and our investment framework based on the findings. 

PRO members can watch it here.

Quick reminder: We're keeping this short and punchy since we covered the metric basics in our first Market Pulse report. Today it's all about what's happening right now and what it means for your portfolio.

Ok, let's not waste anymore time and get right into it! 👇

MACRO

We’re starting with macro because it sets the tone for everything else.

The Business Cycle

First we have to look at the business cycle, as it is the foundation of how we understand the trend and direction of markets. 

If you’re new here, learn more about how the business cycle impacts crypto markets here

The chart below shows the ISM, which gives us a pretty solid clue about where we are in that cycle right now.

The latest number came in at 48.5, which was lower than expected. So while the slowdown we’ve been seeing in 2025 has eased a bit, things haven’t fully turned around yet.

It might feel like the market's getting into risk-on mode, but the ISM doesn’t support that just yet — that kind of shift usually kicks in once the ISM climbs above 50.

We think a trend upwards in the ISM is coming soon, likely starting next month. 

The rest of the year should support a rising ISM, bringing alt-season with it. However we need to remain patient until the data supports that thesis.

Alright, let’s shift over to Truflation.

Truflation

You’ve probably seen the inflation numbers that governments report, but Truflation gives a more real-time look at what prices are actually doing.

Truflation is showing some interesting signs. May kicked off at just 1.35%, but finished at 2.06%, marking a pretty sharp spike over the month.

Remember, Truflation tends to front-run official inflation, so this jump could be a sign that a spike in the reported inflation is on the way too (though likely not for 2 CPI prints from now)

That said, we’re still hovering around the 2% mark for Truflation (and 2.3% for inflation), and no one seems too worried. 

A while back, the Fed more or less hinted that 3% is the new 2% (their original inflation target), so unless inflation pushes well past 3%, they’re not likely to panic.

As the ISM picks up, it is natural for inflation to slowly pick up along with it. Think about it, the ISM means consumption/demand has picked up, so of course prices of goods will rise with it.

This is normal for the business cycle and not a massive concern, so long as we don’t have break away inflation like we did in 2021, due to the supply chain breakdowns of COVID lockdowns.

Bottom line? Nothing here looks too alarming, not yet.

Alright, let’s dive into some performance data.

PERFORMANCE

We’re starting things off with a look at how some of the major investment assets have been performing.

Prices

As you can see above, crypto was the top performer over the past month. That’s something we love to see. 

Surprisingly, the total crypto market cap grew faster than Bitcoin last month, which led to a small drop in Bitcoin’s dominance.

But the real story here is just how much stronger crypto performed compared to stocks or gold. 

Crypto nearly doubled the gains we saw in stocks or gold — a clear sign of where the momentum is right now.

Looking at the stock indices, the Russell 2000 (dark green) was the worst performer, showing investors are still avoiding higher-risk plays.

And here’s something interesting: around May 21-22, stock indices and gold took a dip, but Bitcoin hit new all-time highs.

We’d love to see more of these uncorrelated moves from Bitcoin going forward. 🥳

And since we’re on the topic of prices, let’s take a look at the top performers in crypto!