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- đ„ Checking the markets pulse: July 2025 đ©ș
đ„ Checking the markets pulse: July 2025 đ©ș
Is now the time to go risk-on?

GM, this is Milk Road PRO. Time for our Monthly Market Pulse report â your regular dose of market intelligence that cuts through the noise and focuses on what actually matters.
Unless youâve been living under a rock this past month, youâre probably just as excited as we are.
Why?
Because everythingâs lining up. Weâre now seeing positive news and headlines about crypto almost every day and itâs getting harder and harder to ignore.
But hereâs the thing: these arenât just short-term hype cycles.
The impact of all this is long-term. The shift in crypto adoption isnât something that might happen â itâs already happening, and itâs picking up speed.
And when you throw in a positive macro outlook for the next few months, it all adds up to one strong setup.
PS: Check out our in-depth macro outlook here for all the details.
Now think ahead: how will you look back on this moment five years from now?
Our guess? Youâll probably say something like, âIt was so obvious back then â just look at all the companies and institutions getting involved and building on these networks.â
How unreal does that sound to you?
Because to us, it feels very real â and weâre genuinely excited to be right here, witnessing it all unfold.
So here's your monthly market health check-up, complete with the charts and metrics that matter most.
Plus, we'll reveal our $1K all-in allocation to our PRO portfolio.
Oh and even better, the PRO team recorded a 1 hour internal research meeting discussing the details of this report and our investment framework based on the findings.
PRO members can watch it here.
Quick reminder: We're keeping this short and punchy since we covered the metric basics in our first Market Pulse report. Today it's all about what's happening right now and what it means for your portfolio.
Ok, let's not waste anymore time and get right into it! đ
MACRO
Weâre starting with macro because it sets the tone for everything else.
The Business Cycle
First we have to look at the business cycle, as it is the foundation of how we understand the trend and direction of markets.
If youâre new here, learn more about how the business cycle impacts crypto markets here.
The chart below shows the ISM, which gives us a pretty solid clue about where we are in that cycle right now.
The ISM is just under the 50 mark, sitting at 49. The latest reading finally ticked up a bit, so we might be seeing the start of a turnaround.
Just a heads-up: the summer season, often called the "banana zone," usually kicks off when the ISM climbs above 50. We're getting close.
But itâs not just ISM giving us a sense of where we are in the cycle â global liquidity plays a big role too.
Global Liquidity
If you're not sure why, take a look at this chart showing the link between global liquidity (shifted 3 months ahead) and $BTC prices.
The correlation here is pretty clear. And if you think global liquidity has already gone too far, letâs zoom out and look at the bigger picture.
This chart shows how global liquidity and Bitcoin prices have changed over time.

Liquidity has been rising at a faster pace recently, but $BTC hasn't caught up yet. The problem is that the rate of change is usually similar for both.
That means $BTC might have some catching up to do.
But letâs set $BTC aside for a moment. This is actually a bigger signal for the whole crypto market. When liquidity starts flowing faster, it usually creates the kind of environment where altcoins tend to thrive too.
And in this report, weâll find out if thatâs already starting to happen or not.
Alright, letâs shift over to Truflation.
Truflation
Youâve probably seen the inflation numbers that governments report, but Truflation gives a real-time look at what prices are actually doing (instead of using trailing data.)
Real inflation closed the month at 2.07%, just a touch above the Fedâs 2% target â which is a good sign. Higher numbers couldâve delayed upcoming rate cuts.
Now there is a 90% chance of anywhere from 2-4 cuts this year.
Looks like several rate cuts are on the table, and it's still unclear if the market has fully accounted for that yet.
With Trump putting more pressure on the Fed to be more aggressive, thereâs a good chance these probabilities shift toward even more cuts.
đ From a macro perspective, things are looking pretty bullish overall.
This is just a quick glimpse into the bigger picture.
We went much deeper into the macro trends in our latest PRO report, which you can check out here.
If all the stars are lining up, it makes sense to expect risk asset prices to start moving upâŠ
Letâs see if thatâs how it plays out.
PERFORMANCE
Asset Classes
We want to see and compare how some major investment classes have been performing.

Source: Tradingview
Stocks, measured by the S&P 500, were the top performers last month, gaining 4.75%.
$BTC also finished in the green and even more importantly, it boosted its dominance in the crypto space. You can see that by comparing Bitcoinâs performance to the total crypto market.
đ Given that there was a seemingly real chance of a potential WWIII, the performance of both stocks and crypto was surprisingly strong and honestly, pretty impressive.
Yes, crypto did take a sharp dip â but it bounced back fast in a classic V-shaped recovery, offering some pretty attractive discounts for a brief moment.
Gold ended up as the loser of the month, down 1.91%, giving back some of the momentum it had built earlier this year.
The gap between stocks and crypto vs. gold isnât huge just yet, but we think thatâs about to change and the gap is likely to keep growing from here.
Why? Because itâs starting to feel more and more like weâre entering a risk-on environment â and that usually favors stocks and crypto, not gold. đ„ł
So if crypto is gearing up for a move, letâs see if we can spot some common narratives, identify which coins are already picking up momentum, and which ones might be running out of gas.
Uh, Oh⊠đ§ The rest of this report is exclusive to Milk Road PRO members!
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WHATâS LEFT INSIDE? đ
The top gainers and losers over the last 30 days
Is this the moment everything starts to line up just right?
Which token(s) weâre buying this month
Upgrade your subscription today to unlock access to all of the milky insights above, PLUS:
Weekly reports to help you manage investments, allocate capital, take profits, and stay ahead in crypto đ
Weekly âWhere Are We In The Cycle?â indicators to help you spot the bull market top before itâs too late đ
Access to the PRO Community, where the Milk Road crew & 1000s of fellow PROs talk crypto. Donât miss the monthly live events! đ«
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