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- 🥛 3 factors impacting crypto this week 🥊
🥛 3 factors impacting crypto this week 🥊
PLUS: Why $ETH hasn’t broken out yet 📈
Chevy Cassar
July 07, 2025
GM. This is Milk Road – Psssssssccchhhkkk we just opened up a can of crypto news for you. Enjoy!
Here’s what we got for you today:
✍️ What to look out for this week
✍️ Why $ETH hasn’t broken out yet
🎙️ The Milk Road Show: How Coinbase Plans to Dominate Global Crypto Markets w/ Aklil Ibssa
🍪 Sadly, the rumors are false
REX-Osprey the creators of the first US-based Solana staking ETF, giving 100% of its staking yield back to shareholders. Learn more here!
WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS WEEK 📆
We pay an intern to catalogue important market events, so you don’t have to!
Here’s what our pimply protégé has collected for you this week, broken into three factors/categories:
1/ Macro 📊
This week’s theme in macro? Treasury sales:
US 10-year treasury note auction – Wednesday – the US gov. raises debt from investors, paying it back over (you guessed it) 10 years, with a set amount of interest.
Fed meeting minutes – Wednesday – the notes taken from June’s Federal Reserve meeting are released, giving us a temp check on their outlook.
Initial Jobless Claims data – Thursday – this data will hint at whether unemployment is about to rise or fall (higher unemployment can lead to rate cuts).
US 30 year treasury bond auction – Thursday – similar to a 10-year note auction, but on a 30-year time scale.
But why should we care about bond sales and their yields? And what do they have to do with crypto? 👇️
Why do yields rise?
If investors think a country’s economy/currency is going to weaken over time, they’ll want more interest to make sure their money is still worth something down the line.
What does it mean for crypto?
Higher yields from safe assets, like bonds, can make them more attractive than stocks or riskier investments, like crypto – meaning higher bond yields can pull money out of crypto.
What can we learn from US treasury note and bond sales?
These sales are essentially a vibe check with investors that tests to see how much faith they have in the US economy over 10 and 30 years.
When the US sells treasury notes and bonds, investors will place bids in the form of ‘desired interest rates’ (telling the government what rates investors need to see to buy their bonds).
A bunch of low interest rate bids would tell us that investors see the country as a low-risk lender and have faith in its ability to keep its economy strong over time (and vice versa).
P.S. If you’re in the market for twice-weekly macro news, you need to subscribe to Milk Road Macro – Tomas, our writer, is an absolute freak (in the best way possible).
2/ Government 🏛️
The US tariff deadline was just extended from Wednesday Jul 9th, to Friday Aug 1st. 👇
We’ll be keeping our eyes peeled for market reactions to this news over the coming week (though this extension may have already been priced in).
As for this week’s wild card in government news: Elon Musk just founded a new political party – and guess what… 👇
It might take a minute for this to actually affect Bitcoin (it’s still super early) – regardless, we’ll be keeping an eye out for any further developments.
3/ Technicals 📈
Check this out:
Yuh. Absolute gibberish. Allow us to translate:
The MV/RV ratio =
Market Value (MV): a cryptocurrency’s total market cap (price per coin x total supply).
Realized Value (RV): the value of all coins at the price they were purchased for.
SMA365 = the coin’s average price over the last 365 days.
For Bitcoin’s uptrend to continue, we want the MVRV line (in purple) to stay above the SMA365 (in yellow).
…and right now, they’re threatening a cross.
This is why we track Bitcoin’s MVRV every Thursday in our PRO “Where Are We In The Cycle” section, with a simple “🟢, 🟡, or 🔴” rating – indicating whether we have room to run or not.
Want to stay up to date on whether you should be buying, selling, or holding? Go PRO and get full access here!
Until then, we wait n’ watch. 🧘♂️
First mover advantage is a real thing.
Apple had it in smart phones, NVIDIA had it in AI chips, and Coinbase led the charge as the first major US-based crypto exchange.
Last week, REX Osprey racked up three first mover milestones, becoming the first US-Based ETF to give investors access to:
Solana exposure
Active asset staking
100% of staking rewards (paid monthly)
The ticker is SSK. The asset is SOL. Ready to learn more?
WHY HASN’T $ETH BROKEN OUT YET? 🤨
Real question: wen $ETH new all-time highs?
‘Cause since May, Ethereum has been stuck hovering between $2.25k and $2.75k – yet we can’t remember a time in recent memory that things have been this bullish for $ETH.
Just look at all the narrative juice we’re squeezing right now:
1/ Real World Assets (RWAs)
RWAs seem to be one of the few sectors that refuses to stop growing – and Ethereum is home to roughly 57% of the sector (!!!) 👇
2/ The Ethereum ETFs are on a run
We’re talking eight straight weeks of positive inflows. 👀
3/ $ETH Treasury companies are catching crazy bids
Need a sign that the market is bullish on Ethereum as a treasury asset? This is it. 👇
Right, so back to the question: wen $ETH new all-time highs?
As we mentioned last week, if we want to see altcoins run – we typically need to see Manufacturing PMI (a measure of future economic growth) break above 50.
(It’s currently at 49, up slightly from 48.5 last month.)
More money floating around the economy = more disposable income for investors = more ‘fun money’ for us all to pile into risk assets, like $ETH.
Once that happens, our bingo card for “potential $ETH narrative breakout catalysts” might look something like this:
Continued treasury adoption
Staking coming to the $ETH ETFs
Faster/wider Ethereum L1 adoption, now that it’s optimizing for scale
Which one do you have your money on? (Vote to see the results.) 👇
Which Ethereum narrative do you think is the most likely breakout catalyst? |
COINBASE IS ON A SHOPPING SPREE 🛍️
Last week, Coinbase made its fourth major acquisition for the year, in LiquiFi.
Making the company’s 2025 acquisition scorecard looks like this:
Spindl (Jan) - onchain ads and attribution platform
Iron Fish (March) - a privacy-focused blockchain platform
Deribit (May) - the crypto derivatives exchange
LiquiFi (last Weds) - automates token distribution (airdrops, lockups, global payroll etc.)
And on today’s episode of The Milk Road Show, we sat down with Coinbase’s head of Mergers and Acquisitions, Akil, to get a broader scope of Coinbase’s vision of the future.
It’s a banger! Click to watch the full episode below. 👇
Put your stablecoins to work and grow your stash. We just dropped a new page covering the best platforms for lending stablecoins.
Sadly, the rumors are false — you cannot get a UAE Golden Visa by staking $100k in Toncoin.
Why does it feel like the EU is outpacing the US rn? Spain’s second-largest bank just launched Bitcoin and Ethereum trading/custody for retail clients.
Looks like someone’s non-compete just expired. Jack Dorsey is looking to launch a new decentralized messaging app — DL News.
Is spot trading a little too boring for you? dYdX lets you trade perpetuals onchain with zero gas fees.**
**this is partner content.
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