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  • đŸ„› 2 BIG reasons crypto could pump in November 👀

đŸ„› 2 BIG reasons crypto could pump in November 👀

PLUS: it's the final stretch of the U.S. vs. fkSBF trial... ⚖

November 01, 2023

Today’s edition is brought to you by Masterworks - invest in blue-chip art today!

GM. This is Milk Road, we’re like a slice of pizza - you can enjoy it any time of the day. Breakfast, lunch, dinner, midnight snack - doesn't matter.

Here’s what we’re serving up today:

  • What to expect in November 👀

  • Fine art meets the blockchain đŸ€

  • The U.S. vs Sam Bankman-Fried: The Final Chapter ⚖

  • What should we research next? đŸ€“

  • Bitcoin turns 15 đŸȘ

WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER 👀

October Uptober was a good month for crypto. 

  • BTC jumped 29%

  • ETH rose 9%

  • Total Value Locked (TVL) on DeFi protocols increased by 8%

Which made it the perfect time to snap a picture for my Christmas card this year


Now for the million-dollar question: will the BTC pump continue in November?

Well, there are two things you should know


1/ November is one of Bitcoin’s best-performing months.

Historically speaking, Bitcoin has its highest average returns (+40%) this month.

Fun Fact of the Day: Bitcoin was green in September and October this year


That’s something that’s only ever happened twice before. (2015 and 2016)

The two times it happened, Bitcoin also had a green November AND a green December. We’re hoping for a 3-peat


2/ Short Gamma is helping Bitcoin’s price pump

Over the last few weeks, I’ve been hearing the same term over and over again
“short gamma”. 

At first, I thought it was a new nickname for guys under 5’7”. (no offense to my short kings out there)

Turns out, it’s a real thing in the investing world. And it’s been playing a big role in Bitcoin’s price increase recently. 

Here’s an easy way to think about it:

  • Investors can buy/sell options contracts for an asset (i.e. Bitcoin) whenever they want

  • Whenever that happens, market makers (aka the entities that offer options contracts) take the opposite side of investors' trades to maintain a market-neutral portfolio

  • This is called “gamma hedging” and market makers do this by buying/selling the underlying asset (i.e. BTC) as prices move

Well, there’s recently been a huge demand for Bitcoin call options, which has put market makers in the “short gamma” zone.

This means that as prices go higher, market makers need to buy more BTC to hedge and maintain a market-neutral position. 

The result? Something called a “gamma squeeze”. (Hint: it’s just like a short squeeze)

Prices go up → so market makers need to buy BTC → which pushes prices higher → forcing market makers to buy more BTC → prices go even higher → leading to a happy Milk Man. 

Many believe that this is part of the reason why Bitcoin saw such a big pump last week.

And guess what? Analysts (with much higher IQs than me) think it could happen again soon


I’m no mathematician but


A historically good month for BTC + a potential gamma squeeze =

A green November 2023 (?).

But we’re curious what the Roaders think


What do YOU think will happen this month?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

Click on your answer above and we’ll share the results tomorrow!

P.S. - congrats to the 69% (nice) of you Roaders who predicted October was going to be a green month. You can call Mom and tell her you were right!

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THE U.S. VS SAM BANKMAN-FRIED: THE FINAL CHAPTER ⚖

Crypto’s trial of the century, The U.S. vs. Sam Bankman-Fried, is almost over


All the evidence has been presented. 

All the witnesses have been called. 

All the patience has run out.

And we’re one step closer to getting an answer to the million-dollar question
 

How long will Sam Bankman-Fried (formerly-known-as-SBF, or fkSBF for short) go to jail? 

Our inside sources say they saw fkSBF’s lawyer pass him a note yesterday. Here’s what it said


So, what’s left in the trial? There are 4 main things


1/ Both sides will make their closing arguments today.

2/ The prosecutors (i.e. the U.S. government) will make a rebuttal case.

3/ Then, Judge Lewis Kaplan will explain to jurors how the law applies to the seven charges against the FTX founder.

4/ After all that’s done, it’s in the jury’s hands to decide fkSBF’s fate on each of those seven charges. 

Milk Road Take: There’s still a little bit of time left but, in our eyes, it’s game over. 

fkSBF’s last hope was his testimony. It was an opportunity for:

a) fkSBF to clear things up and help clean the dirty bed he made. 

b) the cross-examiners to mess up. (i.e. similar to O.J. Simpson’s “the glove doesn’t fit” moment)

The problem? None of that happened. 

fkSBF sh*t the bed during his multi-day testimony and the prosecutors proved the glove (aka the crime) does fit. 

Now, we wait for the jury to decide.

WHAT SHOULD WE RESEARCH NEXT? đŸ€“

There are many cool narratives happening in crypto right now.

Too many.

It’s like the first time I went to a candy store as a kid...

I walked in, saw all the candy, saw a 5-lb Hershey chocolate bar, and then fainted from all the excitement. True story. 

So instead of letting that happen again, we’re gonna let you decide what we dive into next. 

What do you want us to dive into next?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

Click on your answer above!

BITE-SIZED COOKIES đŸȘ

Bitcoin’s white paper turned 15 years old yesterday. “Go shawty, it’s yo birthday. We’re gonna party like it’s yo birthday
”

MetaMask is partnering with security firm Blockaid to add native security alerts to its browser extension. The goal is to proactively prevent malicious transactions and protect users from scams, phishing attempts, and hacks.

Vitalik dropped a new blog post about the Ethereum layer 2 ecosystem. “Wake up, babe. V-God dropped a new banger.”

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.

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