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GM. This is Milk Road, your crypto training camp – building your financial muscles one insight at a time.

Here’s what we’re cookin’ today:

• The #1 thing to avoid in crypto ✋

• 4 BIG things to watch this week 🚨

• OpenSea acquisition coming? 🍪

THE #1 THING TO AVOID IN CRYPTO ✋

You’ll see a lot of acronyms flying around crypto…

• TVL (total value locked).

• MAU (monthly active users).

• DAA (daily active addresses).

These are all common metrics investors use to decide whether a crypto project is “legit” or not. You’ll hear things like…

“This project has more TVL, so it’s better!”

“Just look at the trading volume, this is the next big thing!

But oftentimes, this is a trap. And one you want to avoid. 

Why? First things first… a lot of these metrics are inflated. 

Here are two examples:

1/ Solana’s stablecoin volume. 

Solana has been leading all chains in stablecoin volume recently. 

It saw ~$120B in USDC volume last week alone. Sounds impressive, right?

Well, a Twitter user (@CarryWorm) decided to dig deeper. Here’s what they found…

• 90% of the volume was coming from the same 9 accounts.

• All of them were market makers.

• They inflated the numbers by creating and canceling orders that were never filled.

In other words, Solana’s stablecoin volume has more hot air than a bag of Cheetos.

2/ NFT lending on Blur. 

NFT lending (also known as “NFTfi”) has been one of the hotter narratives in crypto. 

Blur has been leading the way.

$833M in NFT loans have been given out or refinanced on its platform this month alone. 

Well, NFTstats.eth (NFT guru and friend of Milk Road) recently found out that:

• 2 wallets account for $230M of the loans.

• That makes up 55.9% of all volume. 

Milk Road Take: Try to avoid the Metrics-Mania of Crypto…

• Don’t get hypnotized by high numbers. Just like a magician’s trick, the real action is often where you’re not looking. 

• Look for substance over sparkle. It's easy to get caught up in the razzle-dazzle of big stats, but the devil's in the details.

• Always DYOR (do your own research). Dig deeper, question more, and remember… not all that's counted truly counts.

4 BIG THINGS TO WATCH THIS WEEK 🚨

We’ve got a big week coming up!

Here are the 4 most important things you should keep your eyes on:

1/ The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

It’s FOMC week. The first of the year. **nervous gulp**

If you’re not familiar, the FOMC is a group of people in charge of controlling inflation & deflation.

They do this by adjusting interest rates, and deciding what assets to buy with the treasury. 

The FOMC meets (around a fancy mahogany table) 8 times a year to figure out 3 main things:

• Maximizing employment.

• Stabilizing prices (inflation/deflation).

• Moderating long-term interest rates.

The FOMC meets. Then the notes get released. Then the markets react. 

I know… BOOOORIIIIIING! But it’s important, so stay with me. 

Here are some possible outcomes from the upcoming meeting:

Scenario 1: Rates go up. This would likely make investors nervous and turn the markets into a roller coaster (not the fun ones at Six Flags either).

Scenario 2: Rates hold steady or drop. This would be a warm blanket for the markets, potentially giving a green light to risk-on assets, like crypto. 

The big thing to watch will be… the FOMC’s language and future predictions. Sometimes it's not just what they do, but what they say about the near-term that gets the markets buzzing.

Btw, according to CME FedWatch Tool’s predictions, there’s a: 

• 97.9% chance interest rates stay the same.

• 2.1% chance they go down.

• 0% chance there’s a hike. 

2/ Earnings reports. 

32% of the S&P500 companies will report earnings this week. 

This includes heavy hitters like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Facebook (we don’t call it “Meta” under this roof).

Here’s who else is on deck:

Watch out. Volatility from earnings week could also bleed into crypto. 

P.S. - According to The Block, the S&P500 and Bitcoin have a negative correlation, meaning they’re prices currently move in opposite directions.

3/ Google’s crypto ads.

Starting today, Google is letting “financial products that allow investors to trade shares in trusts holding large pools of digital currency” run ads. 

This includes Bitcoin ETFs. 

The good news: there’s gonna be a lot more Bitcoin ads on Google. 

More ads = more eyeballs on BTC. 

The bad news: there’s gonna be a lot more Bitcoin ads on Google… including fake scams and malicious links. Watch out!

Milk Road Rule #35: Check the link, before your funds sink.

4/ Token unlocks. 

Every investor should keep track of token unlocks. (In case you missed it, here’s a quick explainer on why they’re important and how they can affect prices).

This week about $240M in tokens will be unlocked:

• $89.6M in dYdX tokens (10.63% of the supply).

• $72.96M in OP tokens (2.77% of the supply).

• $55M in SUI tokens (4.02% of the supply).

Here at Milk Road, we don’t like doing public math. But…

FOMC meeting + earnings reports + token unlocks = a recipe for volatility.

Buckle up.

BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪

Bahamut Grants Program has launched, which includes a 10 million $FTN fund for individuals, businesses, organizations, and researchers. Bahamut chain is an innovative, EVM-based, layer 1 public blockchain with smart contract capabilities, advanced security, and a unique PoSA consensus - that means Proof of Stake and Activity!*

OpenSea’s CEO says the NFT platform is “open-minded” towards acquisitions. “The honest answer is that we take a pretty open-minded approach. We think that if the right partnership comes along, then that’s something we should certainly consider.” —DL News

Dark web dealer surrenders $340M in crypto under new plea deal. It’s the largest crypto seizure in the Drug Enforcement Agency’s (DEA) history. 

Bloomberg experts believe there’s a 60% chance an ETF will be approved in May. James Seyffart (ETF guru) is eyeing May 23 as the next date to watch in the spot ether saga. 

Analysts predict Charles Schwab will eventually offer its own Bitcoin ETF. Some experts speculate that Schwab's delay may allow the firm to offer lower fees than its competitors.

A poem that was inscribed on the Bitcoin blockchain sold for $11,430 at Sotheby’s. It’s the first-ever individual poem sold by the 280-year-old auction house. 

*This is sponsored content

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.